A joint report by the UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform think tanks found the ending of free movement is contributing significantly to current labour shortages. In these rapidly changing political times,the experts at the CER provide the high qualityanalysis and intelligence on some of the mosttopical issues of interest today. Most of our events are by invitation only and off the record, to ensure a high level of debate. Publications, research projects, news & events. Apart from Russia, Europe is a resource-poor continent. CER was founded in 1996. For its part, the ECB has learnt from the crises of 2010, 2012 and 2015 that any instability in highly indebted countries can spread quickly. Russia is developing a second gas pipeline to China, but it will be several years before it is finished. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Ad-Free Login These countries concerns are not irrational. Thanks, INSIDE BRIEFING with Institute for Government. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Furlough schemes kept workers attached to firms, preventing the scars that unemployment would have caused once the crisis passed. There are always pressures to spend more on public sector wages, while the reform of health and social care services, and pensions, is difficult. CER/Clifford Chance hybrid discussion on 'Industrial policy and the future of state aid', The Protocol deal is a win for Sunak and the EU, Ditchley conference report: Macroeconomics in a time of pandemic and war. For its part, Russia has avoided a collapse of the ruble and its trade surplus increased after its invasion of Ukraine. Simply indispensable.Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister, Sweden, I have been reading the CERs papers regularlyfor many years. See all Left-Center sources. https://www.ft.com/content/a81eafaa-0752-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5. In this weeks episode of the CER podcast, Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of our Brussels office, and Sander Tordoir, senior economist at the CER, explain the escalating conflict between Hungary and the EU. In Britain its probing analysis and in depth, research-based enquiries into every corner of EU policy haveprovided a much needed antidote to the often raucous and ill-informed national debate over European issues. This button displays the currently selected search type. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. How long will high energy prices persist for, and what might be the consequences for inflation and interest rates? Are we entering a new world of higher inflation and interest rates, or should we expect a return to the macroeconomics of the 2010s? The conference brings together leading politicians, officials, academics, journalists and think-tankers working on economic policy issues. Mr Rees-Moggs Tory colleague Mr Baker said that was broadly correct. Job vacancies are now rising, but so far wage settlements have lagged behind inflation. In this case, technical education can increase the supply of high-skilled workers and make it easier for companies down the chain to adopt new technology. Many of the worlds largest economies bounced back quickly from Covid. A year of war in Europe: The balance sheet, Finland should be ready to join NATO, with or without Sweden, Hungary, Poland and the rule of law: Follow the money, La comptitivit ne sobtient pas en dversant des montagnes de cash, Finland should prepare to join NATO on its own, L'UE peut-elle se permettre de maintenir les sanctions contre la Hongrie et la Pologne ? Because the euro area is a net energy importer, surging energy prices have subjected it to a terms of trade shock, in which import prices have risen far more than export prices, making Europeans poorer. One risk to this scenario is a re-opening of Chinas economy, which could imply very high Chinese demand for global LNG. In this years final episode of the CER podcast, our researchers unpack the most significant event of the past year, Russias war on Ukraine. It was important to assess carefully which goods were a problem perhaps microchips, energy, rare earths and batteries required government intervention, because they were inputs into many other goods. The ECB must strike a delicate balance between anchoring expectations by tightening policy in the face of a negative consumption shock and guarding against financial instability, especially in highly indebted member-states. Some fretted that these dynamics might give rise to a situation of financial or fiscal dominance, in which central banks saw themselves forced to pursue a looser stance to avoid instability in the financial sector or bond markets. Yet countries have not adopted any rigorous methodology to assess which sectors are strategic. Around 60 per cent of European firms report energy to be one of the largest obstacles to their business, compared with only 25 per cent in the US. The picture in the euro area looks different, as it is much more exposed to the Russian war in Ukraine. Without co-operation, the dangers to the global economy of strategic decoupling will be much greater. Or could it raise the risk of stagnation, especially in countries that attract fewer migrants? Preliminary Assessment: High Credibility Nevertheless, to make the green transition work, the ability to store energy is crucial: Europe should aim for an industrial structure that favours developing and producing energy storage solutions. | The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to improving the quality of the debate on the European Union. Our work is funded by donations from the private sector. But most discussants believed this type of broad decoupling was the exception. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. In the medium term, Covid may accelerate the globalisation of services trade, by proving that more services can be delivered remotely. The CER is an independent, private not-for-profit organisation. Loose fiscal policy and energy price controls would prevent household consumption from cratering and give people time to invest in energy efficiency. The most important drawback of swift rate hikes and shrinking central bank balance sheets is that these measures may choke off the investment urgently needed for the energy transition. The shift from traditional to electric vehicles could lead to a sizeable loss of employment in the West. Some EU countries want to stifle foreign cloud computing services. Is the EU becoming more protectionist, or are its attempts to create a more level playing field globally justified? The CER aims to promote an open, outward-looking and effective European Union. Produced by Helmi PillaiMusic by Edward Hipkins, In this weeks episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast Helmi Pillai interviews John Springford about his most recent cost of Brexit analysis. Charles Grant and his team cut through the hyperboleand political bias that surround their subject, and help me to understand the issues. In the UK, pandemic- and Brexit-induced hits to labour supply have temporarily increased the bargaining power of workers, but other signs indicate that in the longer term labour power will continue to be weak. One participant stressed the rise of the intangible economy, with physical assets falling in importance compared to less tangible things like knowledge, relationships between investors, workers and companies, and software and databases. During the pandemic, European governments did not provide as much stimulus as the US, and the difference between core and headline inflation in the eurozone has been lower. Through cutting-edge research, analysis, and programs we provide fresh insight on energy, security, and defense to government officials and agencies; we help transatlantic businesses navigate changing strategic landscapes; and we build networks of future Atlanticist leaders. However, poor working conditions for less skilled workers mean that the UK and US, and other countries committed to. When deciding to evaluate a source we do a preliminary investigation to determine if the source qualifies for review. With Lars Danielsson, Permanent Representative of Sweden to the EU, Speakers included: Agns Bnassy-Qur, Marco Buti, Benot Cur, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli and Martin Sandbu, With Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament, With David Lammy, Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Affairs, UK, Winner of the Prospect 2015 Think Tank of the Year Award - UK International Affairs. He works on EU foreign and defence policy, Russia, China, the euro and global governance. He [Jeremy Hunt]cannot do much about the loss of European Union workers, estimatedby the Centre for European Reform to be 330,000, but he will hope to address the loss of older workers, apparentlylured away from the labour market and into early retirement. It has a uniquevantage point on Brexit, but offers authoritative,balanced and exceptionally well informedcommentary on all the most salient EU issues. The importance of smallholder farming is increasingly recognized in rural areas where increased crop productivity and market participation can effectively improve their dietary diversity and nutrition quality. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform said in a statement on Thursday that he recalled discussing Treasury research into Brexit with minister Steve Baker. The case for other goods was weaker. There were different views about what inflation might look like once the dust settled from the economic shocks triggered by the pandemic and the war on Ukraine. On the eve of the pandemic, unemployment had reached record lows in many European countries, while wage growth and inflation had been modest. They delve into the methods used to reach this figure and debate the potential benefits and drawbacks of sector-specific immigration rules to try to reduce labour shortages. In the long term, a range of pressures on public budgets will arise: demands for higher health and pension spending, and public investment for the net zero transition. Its second-round effects, with wages rising to compensate for the cost of living, mean the ECB will continue to overshoot its target in 2023. Session 1: How should monetary policy respond to shocks to supply? We also think that the EU should take on more . The US and Europe are right to be concerned about trade dependencies on autocracies the energy crisis is testament to that. Through our meetings, seminars and conferences, we bring together people from the worlds of politics and business, as well as other opinion-formers. Charles Grant, a journalist at The Economist, left his position there in 1998 to work at CER on a full-time basis, and has led the organization since then. Right Bias: How we rate the bias of media sources. In January 2015 he was awarded the Bene Merito medal by the Polish government and in December 2015 he was presented with the Star of Italy medal by the Italian government. One view was that fiscal policy should tighten as interest rates rose, as monetary policy had done; but fiscal and monetary policy were pulling in opposite directions. While the Federal Reserve can put the brakes on an economy that is coming out of a position of strength, the trade-offs for the ECB are much starker. Texas Legislative Issues 2023 Energy, Rene Cross and Mark Jones, Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston. Nationalist economic policies like Brexit pose long-term problems for the countries that pursue them: UK services trade is lagging, and goods trade with the EU has never recovered from Brexit. The profound demand for capital during the green transition will, however, drive up equilibrium real interest rates, which means central banks will face pressure to increase nominal interest rates to catch up. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. The price and supply shocks have been painful, but Europe has managed well and is on course to avoid energy rationing, primarily thanks to a big drop in energy demand. The EUs carbon border adjustment mechanism, for example, would have far less impact on trade patterns if more countries put a price on carbon emissions. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. Some participants did not consider this a realistic assessment, however, because, despite American gas exporters asking Europeans to sign very long-term contracts, European buyers have been hesitant to do so. Insert a keyword or phrase. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-commercial use.Any other use requires the prior written permission of the Centre for European Reform. Watch the video of the event here. The rapid roll-out of sizeable fiscal measures to shield firms and household incomes from soaring energy bills adds further uncertainty. We regard European integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well. Europe needs a new strategy. Countries with high debt ratios may find these pressures strengthen populism (if they try to solve them through higher taxes) or increase yields (if they borrow more). Several participants pointed out, however, that member-states are unlikely to give up their national energy prerogatives. This apparently showed that the economic benefits of the UK forging FTAs with third countries outside the EU were significantly less than the economic costs of leaving the customs union, he said. This seems fundamentally incompatible with the overall political aim of an EU single market for energy. Firms in some countries have coped better than others: to some extent this is a legacy of the global financial and euro crises, which led to diverging financing conditions for firms across Europe. Not all factories run 24 hours a day: harnessing their flexibility in energy consumption would be helpful. He is a member of the international advisory boards of the Moscow School of Civic Education, the Turkish think tank EDAM and the French think tank Terra Nova. Charles Grant is Director of the Centre for European Reform, which he helped found in 1996. Ask CER - Episode 8: Inflation Reduction Act, Qatargate and Iran, CER podcast: Brexit and the labour market, CER podcast: The implications of Russia's war against Ukraine, Discussion on 'Monetary policy after the energy shock', CER/Kreab breakfast on 'How to strengthen the EU? The CER has the breadth of expertise to shine impartial, but searching, light on a range of topics including trade, migration, the institutions and diplomatic relations.Catherine Barnard, Professor of EU Law & Employment Law, University of Cambridge, The CERs work has more depth and moredetail than even the best journalism; it is morecurrent and more accessible than the bestacademic writing; it covers all the politicalangles, and has great expertise in economics andmarkets. EU gas consumption has fallen over 16 per cent year-on-year, greatly outperforming expectations. In this years final episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast, our researchers unpack the most significant event of the past year, Russias war on Ukraine. Winner of the Prospect 2015 Think Tank of the Year Award - UK International Affairs. This would reduce investment in content, make internet contracts less attractive and ultimately harm consumers, Peters said yesterday at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. As with NGEU, the Commission would assess these plans according to how well they tackled problems that were identified in its country-specific recommendations. We are not affiliated with any government, political party or European institution. After years playing by the legal book, the EU is now using its purse strings to curb democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary. The broadening of these controls was driven in part by American corporates eager to receive government subsidies and labour unions welcoming new domestic manufacturing plants. The impacts of decoupling will not necessarily be sudden and severe although the EU will be exposed given its dependency on imports for technology and energy. Session 3: Are we moving from a labour glut to a labour shortage? Despite the public debate about working conditions during the pandemic, the quality and security of low-skilled services jobs are poor, and many workers cannot control how many hours they work. More constant energy consumption, achieved with smart pricing, would also help. Through our meetings, seminars and conferences, we bring together people from the worlds of politics and business, as well as other opinion-formers. That meant that central banks had to push up interest rates further. 27 February 2023. Asked whether he could name a single civil service forecast that had ever been accurate, Mr Baker said: They are always wrong and wrong for good reasonsI look forward to the day when we continue to prove economists wrong when they make horror story predictions. Yet one participant pointed out that governments responses to Covid and the energy crisis had been innovative in that they had sought to preserve the supply side of the economy. Meanwhile, state investment in energy infrastructure and defence must rise substantially to respond to climate change and Russian aggression, and spending on healthcare and pensions will be hard to contain. Renewable energy investment, so vital to bring down energy prices, is extremely sensitive to higher interest rates because it entails a high upfront capital cost followed by a long, drawn-out, period of pay-offs in the form of cheap energy. Clara Marina ODonnell fellow Helmi Pillai speaks to the head of our Brussels office Camino Mortera-Martinez and senior fellows Zach Meyers and Luigi Scazzieri. With very high headline inflation, and core inflation above target, the European Central Bank (ECB) is tightening monetary policy rapidly. For example, there is no Western consensus on whether the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients or smartphones is strategically important. This is a European Commission website managed by the Joint Research Centre. Europe will have to consider mining and processing rare earths domestically if it wants to combine its quest for strategic autonomy with the green transition. When things start bubbling in Moscow and St Petersburg, they are ruthlessly suppressed I dont think demonstrations by soldiers mothers in the periphery make much difference.. Does the Windsor deal herald warmer ties between Britain and the EU? A big short-term priority for governments is to ease the adjustment that the energy crisis necessitates. Central banks need to be convinced that lower rates for green assets will serve their price stability objective. As a result, labour markets in the US have become extremely tight, leading to increases in wages, a dynamic also observed in the UK, albeit to a lesser degree. The Centre for European Reform is an award winning independent think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world. He is a member of the council of the Ditchley Foundation, and chairman of the foundation's programme committee. Media Bias Fact Check offers a number of sustaining Ad-Free membership plans to fit your budget! As we review CEPA please rate their bias. The ECB, for example, could introduce a set of its targeted low-cost refinancing operations for green lending by banks. Gas consumption is down, with industry rapidly switching to alternative fuel sources. As Europe seeks alternative suppliers of gas, the US has emerged as a leading one: if gas markets between the EU and North America become more integrated, prices will converge, driving down European gas prices and possibly keeping Europe on a high carbon emissions path for longer. However, participants disagreed about the extent to which governments should do this: if price interventions were poorly designed, they would encourage households and businesses to use energy, which was in short supply. Governments should invest more in energy efficiency, because that was the best way to get spending on energy down without reducing output. These fields, like other digital markets, are likely to be dominated by one or two players who can build scale quickly. Population ageing in Europe and China means the growth of the labour force in these places will soon go into reverse, putting upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. A Brussels-based think-tank and lobby operation which was established originally as the privately owned lobby firms: Bemont European Community Law Office, and Belmont European Policy Centre. President Trump imposed export controls to target Huawei, and President Biden has now broadened these export controls to cover chip manufacturing in China more generally. Limited decoupling is more common, as countries seek to prioritise resilience in a limited number of strategically important sectors, such as rare earth metals. But disadvantaging Americas cloud giants will do Europe more harm than good. Increasing use of sanctions is not necessarily disrupting established global financial flows the current account surpluses accumulated in China, Saudi Arabia and Russia still finance spending by the US, the EU and India but it is making these flows more complex and opaque. Over the pandemic unemployment remained low. Centre for European Reform in Moses Lake, WA Expand search. Governments need better IT systems so they can deliver support where it is needed. Another explanation is that firms have had access to cheap financing, thanks to a prolonged period of low interest rates, which has meant the cost of capital has declined relative to the cost of labour. The controversy over leaked assessments of the economic damage of Brexit has deepened after a right-leaning think-tank was forced to deny it told ministers that supposedly independent civil service studies on the matter were deliberately skewed. Centre for European Reform | 5,777 followers on LinkedIn. Is it too soon for Breconciliation? But I did not say or imply that the Treasury had deliberately developed a model to show that all non-customs union options were bad, with the intention to influence policy, he added. The EU is pursuing a trade agenda that seeks to penalise imports from countries that damage the environment, violate labour and human rights, or compete in ways the EU considers unfair. For example, the Wests initially targeted sanctions against Russia have become ever-broader. Others argued that, with European economies on the brink of recession, and given the fact that changes in monetary policy take time to have an effect, there was a risk that central banks would raise unemployment too far if they did not stop tightening. They discuss the EUs response to the Inflation Reduction Act, Brexits impact on UK science and technology, Qatargate, EU migration policy, Iran's nuclear programme and the prospect of sending fighter jets to Ukraine. Next Generation EU (NGEU, the post-Covid investment fund), and fiscal rules reform entailed some more powers for the EUs institutions, but also provided more discretionary powers for national governments. In combination with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the US has experienced a cyclical overheating of the American economy. A car plant can be sold off, while the value of knowledge is harder to assess. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Zach Meyers, senior research fellow, shares his views on the technological aspects of the war. In some cases, however, decoupling might reduce risk and improve the worlds resilience to future shocks for example, where decoupling helps diversify the number and location of global suppliers of important inputs and reduce market concentration. Fair Use Policy They consider how to avoid 'Ukraine fatigue' in the West, what can be learnt from Ukraine's military successes and whether Western leaders' visits to Kyiv have a practical value, or risk becoming war tourism. There was broad agreement that the EU should have a bigger fiscal capacity. A full cessation of Russian gas deliveries to Europe by the summer of 2023 is a realistic prospect. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. In December, the Centre for European Reform(CER) found that Brexit had cost the UK a staggering 33bn in lost trade, investment and growth. The Centre for European Reform (CER) is a London-based independent think-tank devoted to making the EU work. Theres still a lot of uncertainty about what the ultimate steady-state relationship between the UK and EU is going to be, particularly how much the UK is going to diverge from EU regulations, said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.That could trigger fresh conflicts in future, but resolution on Northern Ireland increases the likelihood that these will be settled in a way that involves more compromise and less confrontation, hesaid. Global supply chains proved essential for countries to acquire personal protective equipment and vaccines. The European Commissions proposals for new fiscal rules would decentralise power, according to one discussant. They have always been clear,precise, technically sound and well informed. I think it would be quite extraordinary if it turned out that such a thing had happened. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The Centre for European Reform is an award winning independent think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world. The growing use of subsidies an issue which is not effectively disciplined by international trade law remains an area ripe for co-operation. In the context of this research, agrivoltaics is a technological evolution of solar. This task will prove very difficult and in some cases like the mining of rare earths may take decades. The Windsor deal on the Northern Ireland protocol may herald warmer UK-EU ties. Filtered Search, Enter your email address to subscribe to MBFC and receive notifications of new posts by email. The EPC promotes itself as "a pro-active business driven think-tank". The CER states that it is pro-European but not uncritical. Mr Baker said the BuzzFeed article was a selective interpretation of a preliminary analysis, and an attempt to undermine our exit from the European Union. Charles Grant is director of the Centre for European Reform (CER). To overcome its energy challenges, the EU can embark on two overarching political projects that received wide support at the conference. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been faster to raise interest rates, in part because there has been more rapid core inflation in the US and the UK. Soon afterBoris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October2019on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British governmentdemanded changes to the Protocol. Another view was that there were good reasons to smooth out the energy price shock that households and businesses faced. Recent studies by the Centre for European Reform state that the UK's GDP has already fallen by 5.5 per cent due to Brexit, amounting to an annual loss of tax revenue of 40bn, and the immigration policy has caused a shortfall of 330,000 workers. It is a prominent source of ideas and commentary in debates about a wide range of EU-related issues, both in the United Kingdom and in the European Union. However, both sides of the Atlantic protected household incomes during lockdowns, and experienced only short-lived rises in unemployment. And if national governments did not stick to the plans, there would be enforcement from the centre, but the member-states would have more control over the process. These decisions are often driven by a combination of national security concerns, corporate interests and other political considerations, such as labour union pressure. Oil and gas make up 60 per cent of Russian exports, and the government taxes 70 per cent of the associated revenues. Central banks might fail to keep inflation expectations stable as workers try to compensate for income losses in the form of demands for higher wages. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. The EU has absorbed millions of Ukrainian refugees, migration both within the EU and from outside has resumed, and technology allows more services to be provided across borders. Economic policy issues to shocks to supply, could introduce a set of its low-cost! Private not-for-profit organisation politicians, officials, academics, journalists and think-tankers working economic! Right to be concerned about trade dependencies on autocracies the energy crisis is testament that... Integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well it. 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Monetary policies, the dangers to the head of our events are by invitation only and off the record to..., China, but it will be much greater create a more level playing field globally justified -! Only and off the record, to ensure a high level of debate Reform | 5,777 followers on.. Dependencies on autocracies the energy crisis necessitates lending by banks not effectively disciplined by trade! Above target, the EU becoming more protectionist, or are its to. Need to be convinced that lower rates for green lending by banks have been the! But recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well I it. High headline inflation, and chairman of the Atlantic protected household incomes from soaring energy bills adds further.. Check offers a number of sustaining Ad-Free membership plans to fit your budget EU. Strategic decoupling will be several years before it is needed in Poland and Hungary views on the Ireland... 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